02-04 The Northeast Passage

I’ve always wanted to go to “Chetyryokhstollbevoyy Island” north of Russia in the Arctic. So quirky. It is a cruise stop in the Northeast Passage. And cruising here during the summer months will soon attract the same kind of tourist numbers that the Antarctic enjoys.
All scientists are predicting that in ten years, large container ships will be able to pass through both the Northwest Passage over Canada and Alaska and the Northeast Passage over Russia and Norway alone during the summer months and with an ice breaker escort during the winter months. For shipping companies there are monster saving in time and fuel costs.
Hard to predict what else this means. Certainly, there will be huge changes in ship design, ports, roads, local services, and population. Social issues? Quirky.
The puzzle is why Russia has a mega fleet of about 50 ice breakers and the US and Canada have less than ten. Something significant is happening in Siberia and along the Russian coastline in the Arctic.
The photo shows a Russian ice breaker escorting two cargo ships. These two cargo ships, assuming they were bringing iron ore from Norway to China, would be saving in the order of half a million dollars in fuel costs. And by not going the old way through the Suez Canal, they are cutting 20 days of travel time.
But what really caught my attention was learning that Russia is building LNG carriers that can double as ice breakers. The customer for the LNG is China, and in the future, Japan and South Korea. This looks like geopolitics.
And I am sure there are strategists in the US who are trying to find out just how large the natural gas reserves are in the Russian Arctic. And more importantly, how much financing Russia is receiving from China for building ports and infrastructure. China has a huge interest in cheaper shipping because they are the world’s biggest purchaser of raw materials and supplier of finished goods.
The simplified map of the Northeast passage does suggests there will be many different routes to follow as we get more warming and thinner ice. And in both passages, east and west, there will be hundreds of small islands that will be open for exploration, development and settlement. Which island has a billion dollars worth of diamonds, gold or other surprises hidden away? Everything about the future of the Arctic is quirky.
It would be my take that Canada and the US at some point will jointly begin some form of cooperative development of the Arctic. Something like the Seaway Canal.
But be sure that all the developed nations will want a piece of this action whether in the west or the east of the Arctic. But it the east that has the head start. It’s those bloody Russian ice breakers.
In the meantime, a big climate winner will be the manufacturer of those world globes we all give to our kids. Everyone will want to know just where the hell is “Chetyryokhstellbevoyy Island” anyway.