01-08 The Pandemic - John Bulloch

Birth rates, mortality and immigration are all being impacted by the global pandemic. This suggests a reduction in global population numbers. The faster economies can recover because of effective vaccinations. the faster population numbers will return to normal levels.

What was so interesting about deaths during the Spanish Flu was losing a great uncle that was only 23. And hearing my grandmother talk about losing neighbours who were in their 20s and 30s. The impact on birth-rates is obvious.
Trying to understand the population implications of today’s pandemic is a bit of a guessing game. Everywhere the things that impact populations are being affected negatively: birth-rates, mortality and immigration. We just lack good numbers.
Women interviewed may say they are postponing pregnancy, but it is hard to know just when economies will recover to the point where families will feel secure. These temporary postponements could be permanent.
Birth rates in the developed societies are linked to economic security. Successful vaccination programs are the key to economic recovery and all that implies for normal family life.
Back to basics. Young immigrants mean workers and taxpayers to fund the health care and pensions of the growing numbers of elderly citizens. The issue associated with the pandemic is whether a current population crisis is only going to get worse.
The real Covid-19 story is that mortality is hitting seniors hardest. So different in terms of economics compared to deaths during the Spanish Flu. We do not have a population crisis.
The one number that has been published is that in the US the combination of reduced birth rates, higher mortality and reduced immigration will mean one million fewer Americans in 2022.
Every nation will be trying to determine its own population number. These things impact schools, teachers, consumer spending, housing and a range of things that make economies grow.
Nations like the US and Canada that normally enjoy massive immigration numbers that most of Europe would die for, have seen legal immigration grind to a halt. None of the normal VISA applications centres around the world are even open.
They call economics the dismal science. Nothing dismal about a post pandemic recovery that gives us start-ups, jobs, healthy seniors and lots of babies. Let’s hope.