03-05 China - John Bulloch

China had a fertility rate of 2.9 children per woman in 1979, but today it is closer to 1.5. And this is despite government efforts t encourage child birth. The relative collapse of China’s population has huge economic, social and political implications.

It was amusing to all of us on a tour of China in 1987 to visit two nurseries that showed us laughing young girls. All designed to deal with the public criticism of China’s one-child policy at the time.
The one-child policy was dealing with an exploding population back in 1979 when the fertility rate was in the order of 2.9 children per woman. It was abandoned in 2015, and despite efforts to encourage two children per family, birth rates since then have been dropping at the rate of 15% per year.
Today the birth rate is in the order of 1.5 children per woman, and of course, if fertility rates are below 2.1 populations go into decline.
Not hard to understand what is happening in China, because it has already happened in developed societies like Japan. Hard to have a family in those major cities like Shanghai, Beijing or Guangzhou with housing and education costs so high.
The photo is of the Great Wall of China, just outside Beijing. China’s population may be in decline, but not tourism.
The best data available predicts China’s population hitting 1.4 billion in 2029, and then heading for a period of unstoppable decline. Like a projection of 1.19 billion by 2065. The big issue is the shortage of workers in an economy that has benefited from low-cost labor.
Already we know that the cost of labor in China is rising and sending assembly of goods destined for the US market to places like Cambodia and Vietnam. And we have public reports of companies like Walmart moving their supply chains from China to India.
Again, with lessons from other nations with declining populations like Bulgaria, Japan, Italy or Spain, the increasing number of seniors puts a special burden on societies. Not enough workers to provide the tax base to support a nation’s pension and healthcare systems.
I remember 30 years ago when Japan was seen as a rising power. Well they are still powerful, but have levelled off because of labor shortages and the burden of an aging population. China is in the same position today. Still powerful, but not the scary giant we have all feared.
Love all the joyous public photos of families with new babies. Again, a propaganda effort that we see in Japan. It seems that affluent and educated young women enjoy life without children or with just one child.