03-12 EVs

This fun photo shows an electric vehicle or EV at an auto show in 1912. It’s the one on the left. And there were 30,000 of them in the US. But there were also 40,000 driven by steam, and 20,000 by gasoline.
The lesson of history is how innovations like the ignition switch, service stations, and mass production created the global market for today’s automobiles.
It was interesting for me to learn, during my days as a lubrication engineer, that the US military sets so many of the standards companies must meet in supplying lubricants and parts to the US army. The military market for vehicles is simply monstrous. So, assume they will also be establishing standards for EVs.
And, also note that the private sector market for EVs is more than automobiles, but delivery vehicles, heavy trucks, buses, and a whole range of construction equipment.
I attended an auto show in San Jose in 2017. And what excitement with all the EVs being marketed by the auto makers. The Tesla vehicle in the photo got a major play.
But the real insight came from an address by an auto expert. He said that the auto emissions standards that are set by California have a global impact on the design of internal combustion engines. California apparently has special legal powers to set their own pollution standards. And because of the size of the California market, California auto standards become US and global standards.
He also surprised everyone by saying that it is possible to design automobiles that get 50 miles to the US gallon. Well, the oil companies would not like that idea.
His discussion of EVs was all about the price and the design of batteries. And that batteries were presently a third the cost of an EV. But they will be only 20% of the cost by 2025. That is when the EV market will start to explode. He called EVs better technology.
But anyone serious about the future and global warming knows that when the electrical power generated to fuel EVs comes from renewables, governments will outlaw the internal combustion engine. An EV in France gets its electricity from nuclear, and an EV in Norway gets its energy from hydro. So, look to these nations to take the lead.
Societies, generally, are moving into renewables. The first goal is replacing fossil fuels like coal and natural gas with nuclear, hydro, wind and solar for generating electricity.
But few realize how the future demand for electrical power will explode with the sale of EVs. The EV business and the renewables business are intricately linked.