01-03 Public Attitudes

It was a chance meeting with the former Prime Minister of Canada, Paul Martin in Maui in 2010, that I was told about the power and influence of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
He said that when he was meeting with George W Bush, the President of the United States in 2005, he told him that he did not believe either the US or Canada were heading into a recession because of an economic survey of small businesses done by the CFIB.
All the details of the survey were shown to the President. He explained in detail how our surveys on the economy had been consistently more accurate than projections from their own Department of Finance.
And during my years as the CFIB founder and President, all the surveys showed small business to be the public’s most trusted source of information. Then, like today, elected politicians and the media had a poor ranking.
The big difference in the US compared to Canada, is the public trust Americans have with their state leaders compared to national politicians. This is a US phenomenon and not something found in other federal states.
And it is no surprise that medical experts everywhere are the most credible on matters related to the Coronavirus.
And the other big difference today is social media like Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. They can send powerful messages and warnings around the world in a matter of minutes, but they are also mega multipliers of misinformation.
Not sure we are better off today compared to 1918 and the Spanish Flu. My grandmother only listened to the radio, and had trouble understanding what was happening with her limited English.
Changes in public attitudes are always difficult to measure and subject to continuous change. And all political parties do continuous measures of public attitudes on the issues of the day because attitudes impact politics. And changes can be triggered by the most unexpected events.
The most amusing Canadian story is linked to a former provincial premier, Robert Stanfield running against Pierre Elliott Trudeau in 1974 to become the Prime Minister of Canada. Well someone in the media, at a stop in North Bay, threw a football to Mr. Stanfield, hoping for a great photo. Well, the photo showing him dropping the ball gave the perception of someone who is basically clumsy. It appeared on the front page of every newspaper and cost him the election.
Another great story that impacted public attitudes and politics was President Jimmy Carter and the Hostage Crisis of November 1979. It not only lasted 444 days, but an attempted rescue failed. Carter lost to Reagan in the 1980 presidential election.
The great issues of the day are global warming and the pandemic. Stars on these issues are being made. On the virus, the political star is Governor Andrew Como of New York state. His active endorsement and involvement in the 2020 US elections will be significant. He can influence public attitudes.
The unexpected Canadian Coronavirus political star is Conservative Premier Doug Ford of Ontario. Both Ford and PM Justin Trudeau have seen public attitudes move in their favour as a result of the pandemic.
And jumping back into the US, if President Trump’s performance is seen as lacking in six critical states, he will lose his re-election bid. Time to remember that for 80% of the population politics is perception and emotion.
Facts and reality are secondary. Public attitudes are everything.