02-02 India and China

She handed me her business card, when we were introduced as MBA students in 1963. She was from Mumbai, India, and the card said MBA (failed).
But through our friendship I learned how much Indians wanted to be educated in North America. Not just because of the job opportunities, but because of their ability to send money home. This is a billion-dollar business, and close to 175,000 Indian students come to Canada each year, more than any other nation.
This form of national income does not get the public focus as exporting peas and lentils, but the growing number of highly intelligent Indian students in Canada has long-term economic implications. They are all potential leaders. To make the point. Two Indian Sikhs are members of the Liberal government of Canada.
Remember that both India and China are monster growing economies. But China is the problem. Their global goals of economic supremacy are a threat to the US and its allies.
I hate to say it. But it is a magical place to visit. And I loved the Chinese people. My wife and I celebrated our 30th wedding anniversary in China.
Every nation needs China, including India. They simple control the world’s manufacturing. But the Chinese government is not trusted. It is not just President Trump that is calling the Coronavirus the Chinese virus. Indian leaders are doing the same thing.
All the political leaders in both Canada, the US and Europe are decrying their vulnerability, with China and India controlling the production and sale of ventilators, personal protection equipment, and medicines. But it will not happen with vaccines.
The story, however, is worse than it appears. India is the pill capital of the world and produces about 80% of the worlds generic drugs, but the critical active pharmaceutical ingredients they use all come from China.
The photo show President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and both want to encourage greater trade and investment. The typical smiley, smiley routine ignores history and the reality that they are competitors more than colleagues.
My own experience is that India has never been seen as an important and reliable long-term export market. India, instead, is a place to be if you want to sell into the massive English speaking market. But anything we do buy from India in terms of pharmaceuticals is always of high quality.
India tries to maintain its non-aligned status in a world that is becoming bipolar in terms of economics and politics. This is becoming difficult. Not only President Trump, but all the western leaders want India to become more formally aligned.
In the Asian area of the world, nations that share similar values would be the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.
The tensions between India and China because of China’s handling of the virus, which came out of Wuhan, is likely to make this global realignment a reality.
The free world, after the virus, will slowly change. Anticipate a more self-sufficient North America and Europe, but with a stronger Indian partner.