10-02 Russia

The tension between Russia and the West can be traced to the seizure of Crimea on the Black Sea from Ukraine in 2014. For the world it was naked aggression, and a return to the Cold War.
I saw it differently having travelled to Russia in 1987 and having spent two day in neighbouring Odessa. Our tour guide was a non-professional and was pulled into the job because she was a professor of English at the Moscow State University.
She told us that when Premier Krushchev transferred the Crimea over to the Ukraine in 1954, it was very controversial. All her colleagues, at the time, opposed the move. Back in the 1950s the issue was the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol. And a population that was mostly Russian speaking.
From my amateur perspective it did not seem reasonable that Russia could allow Crimea to become part of NATO when it was the home of its navy.
This issue is still important today with Europe dependent on about 30% of its natural gas imports from Russia. Europe’s other big supplier is Norway.
States like Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, for example, depend 100% on natural gas from Russia. And even Germany and Poland rely on Russian natural gas for almost half of their supplies.
There are natural gas fields in the Netherlands, but that source is winding down and is expected to be closed completely by 2030.
It is not hard to see why renewable sources of energy like nuclear, wind and solar are so dominant in Europe. They want to reduce their reliance on Russian natural gas. It has nothing to do with going green, with the exception of Europe’s green political constituency.
The heavy reliance on Russian natural gas by Germany is a source of tension and potential conflict between Germany and the US, with the US threatening tariffs on German automobiles. Germany has responded by planning a large LNG import terminal on the Baltic Sea.
But getting back to Russian interests in Crimea, their occupation means it now controls double the territory in the Black Sea and billions in future oil revenues.