02-03 Taiwan

There are lots of hot spots around the world, like North Korea and Iran, but to me the biggest threat to global security is the relationship between China or the Peoples Republic of China and Taiwan or the Republic of China.
During two trips to Taiwan in 1985 and 1997, my big surprise was visiting the famous National Palace Museum in Taipei. It included something like 5,000 cases of Chinese treasures that Chiang Kai-shek had looted from the National Palace Museum in Beijing when his Kuomintang government was heading to defeat under the Communist led army of Mao Zedong.
So, when I hear China declare Taiwan to be a breakaway province of China, I am sympathetic. The photo of the gold bowl is one of something like a million items on display in the museum. They should be in Beijing.
During both trips I had the pleasure of meeting their Presidents, Lee Teng-hui in 1985 and Chiang Ching-kuo in 1997. It was Mr. Chiang who told me something like 200,000 Taiwan citizens live in Canada and 60,000 Canadians live in Taiwan.
And although the Canada-Taiwan relationship was informal there was a huge amount of two-way trade and investment.
My visits were linked to the International Small Business Congress, and all though government officials did not attend, all kinds of semi-official arrangements were in place. And today Canada has a trade office in Taipei.
The big issue no one wants to talk about is whether China would invade Taiwan. Certainly, the military investments being made by both sides are scary.
Huge amphibian ships being build by China and massive ballistic missile installations on the mainland facing Taiwan.
And small flexible ships being built by Taiwan with sophisticated anti-ship ballistic technology.
I can see only one thing happening. China and Taiwan continue to expand trade and investment while all political leaders in China, Taiwan and the US keep their cool.
Today, Taiwan business investment in China is something like $60 billion US. And as more and more nations fall under China’s spell they will not be allowed to deal with Taiwan. So the Taiwan-China relationship will get even stronger.
It looks like time is the solution to the conflict. That means Taiwan being like Hong Kong, with a degree of independence. Just a degree.