01-03 Threats

It was 1938 and I came home from my first day of school and, of course, my parents asked me how I liked my new classmates. And I told them that none of them spoke English. We lived in an ethnic area of Toronto where people had moved to escape the threat of war in Europe.
So, I can understand some of the tensions and anti-immigrant sentiment that is becoming one of the real threats to the unity of Europe. The cartoon shows the European bureaucracy unable to really cope with the wave of immigrants washing up on its shores.
The attached map of Europe gives you a good picture of the size of the immigrant population in the various nations. And it should not be a surprise that nations with the largest immigrant populations are also experiencing the emergence of right-wing populist parties, supposedly speaking for the working classes who feel threatened by all these newcomers.
But immigration is not the only threat facing Europe. Britain is planning to leave the EU, and that will place a lot of financial pressure on Germany, France and Italy. Germany is a nation that runs budget surpluses and it could afford to increase its spending to support the EU. But nations like France and Italy are massive debtors. So, Europe has financial problems.
Another European problem is President Trump of the US. He is threatening trade with Europe and pressuring European members of NATO to increase their defense spending. But Europeans are in love with social programmes and not defense.
The big US threat is tariffs on German auto exports. If Germany is the backbone of Europe, The German auto sector is the backbone of Germany.
The threat from Russia is also real. And Russian spending on new ballistic missiles and its aggressive activities in the Ukraine suggest the need for special NATO military support in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. All nations where Russia would most likely invade if there was a military conflict.
My personal experience after a lifetime of European travel is my surprise at just how unified Europe is with so many of its member states fighting their own separatist movements.
For example, there are parts of northern Italy that are more Austrian than Italian. And southern Italy seems to be a nation of its own. And how about Catalonia in Spain, with its own language and culture.
The only real centre of power that will protect Europe over time is Germany. Not the US. It’s German financial strength, its technological superiority, its culture, its export industries and its discipline and organization skills. It is no surprise that Europe is called the German empire.