04-02 India vs China

The photo of President Xi Jinping of China and Prime Minister Nasendra Modi of India is designed to send signals to the world that two major economic and military powers seek cooperation and peace. That’s the plan, anyways.
But life is not that simple. There are major disputes between India and China with fuzzy borders through the Himalayas that separate the two countries. And China is an ally of Pakistan, a nation in continuous conflict with India.
My experience from the 1980s and 1990s was that it was very difficult to operate a global company from India with all the bureaucracy and corruption. So large firms are in India to service the domestic market, but are located in China to be a low-cost supplier to the world.
China, from the perspective of pure statistics is a stronger military power than India, and yet India has the capability to land a nuclear missile anywhere in China. So much for statistics. The technology of war changes everything.
China’s war, if we want to call it that, is being waged economically against India by investing heavily in the nations surrounding India, like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.
And in terms of trade it is no contest with India selling things like cotton, copper and Bollywood movies to China and India buying billions of dollars worth of consumer goods. The trade deficit in China’s favour is something like $50 billion.
The energy supply route for China is through the Indian ocean, so real conflict between China and India would leave China vulnerable.
There is only one thing that seems obvious as a growing China becomes a threat to the US; India will become closer to both Japan and the US.
The US would like to see India become a permanent member of the Security Council, but China is opposed. This does not mean that India is a US ally. India is careful to purchase military hardware from both Russia and the US.
But it is useful to the US that China has to confront the growing power and influence of India. India is a check on China’s power which makes it an indirect ally of the US.
If I was to predict the future, it would be the evolution of new global partnerships. China and Russia vs US and India. The isolationist strategy of President Trump will not stand in a world in which US power and influence is under attack by China.