01-05 Cuba

In remembrance of our father, my brothers and I piled into a single room on a cruise ship once a year, with the good company of a box of Cuban cigars. It was the 1980s. We had fun with the many Americans that wanted to either buy one or inhale the smoke.
Of course, this was all linked to the ban on exports from Cuba after the Communist regime under Fidel Castro took over the country in 1959, and nationalized US investments.
Cuba itself is not a US threat, but if a major power like Spain, Britain, Russia or China was to control Cuba, it would become an immediate threat.
It is the Ohio, Missouri, Mississippi river system flowing past New Orleans and out to the Atlantic Ocean passing between Cuba and Florida that is the issue. It is not a coincidence that the US has a naval base at Guantanamo Bay.
The first cold war conflict was the Bay of Pigs American invasion of Cuba in 1961. Then, the Russians in 1962 tried to install nuclear-based missiles on Cuba, and we came close to WW3.
My wife and I visited Cuba in 2002. I wanted to determine if Cuba was a potential partner for my new online learning business. Unfortunately, I found the government restricted free access to the Internet.
Our first surprise was discovering most of the visitors were Americans who were there illegally. They had found ways to enter via Canada and the Bahamas.
Canada has always had a special relationship with Cuba. A Canadian company processes nickel ore in Cuba and then ships it to Alberta for refining. And, there are lots of other Canadian investments in agriculture and education. The proof is Fidel Castro acting as a pall bearer at the funeral of Canadian Prime Minister, Pierre Elliott Trudeau.
Old Havana is a world heritage site. All the restaurants were colourful, with excellent food, but all had the same menu. At least they all cooked with Canadian pork.
Cuba is also famous for its pre-revolutionary American cars, which are continuously repaired, upgraded, and painted in flashing bright colours.
I rented an old Japanese car, and toured the island, visiting the famous beaches at Varadero. Today, all the car rentals are new Chinese cars.
And the Chinese are investing a billion dollars in nickel and cobalt mining and processing facilities in Cuba. Few realize, that during WW2, it was Cuban nickel that the US used to make steel. China now buys half of this nickel. And Cobalt is one of those critical metals that America imports to make jet engines and gas turbines.
What we saw in 2002 were buses that were home-made boxes welded to trailer-truck bodies. Now they are high quality Chinese Yutong buses. China plans to build facilities to assemble not only buses but cars in Cuba.
I chatted extensively with the locals. One was a recent graduate in mining technology that made five times his government salary selling cigars. And another was a manager in a government office that doubled his salary renting out a spare room.
Hard to comprehend the American failure to remove the sanctions on Cuba. It makes no sense. Unless it is Cuban-American politics.
It would be my judgement that if the US removed its sanctions, Cuba would move back into the American orbit. Millions of Hispanics in the US would love to visit the old Spanish city of Havana. And, the future development of Cuba’s oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico would be under the quasi-control of the US.
There is no reason why Cuba could not become another Vietnam, that is experiencing explosive growth after becoming a market economy.
And if this isn’t enough Cuban geopolitics, the cold war in Venezuela between the pro-Chinese left and the pro-West right is a huge Cuban issue. Their supply of cheap Venezuelan oil is at stake.